There’s a lot of cash to be obtained this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the main tournament. I’ll be going thicker than usual this week following the significant GPP prizes, and I will play less cash games than normal. This is the first time we’ve observed a $30k top prize so I think it’s worth chasing in the event that you’ve got the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling from the struggle against Brian Ortega, thus we are now down to 11 fights and we should see a lot of ties on this card together with the more popular lineups. If you’re chasing that $30K then you’ll want to attempt to be a little different with your lineup so that you can separate yourself from the remainder of the field. With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like in addition to my fade of this week.
Cash Game play of this week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is far off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That is just too much line value to pass in money games and that makes Felder the»free square» this week. Even when he loses this battle, he should be so highly owned that it will not even hurt your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so maybe consider avoiding the chalk there in the event that you can. However, with this crazy line value we’re getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the cash game play of this week.
GPP play of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a bit weird because I just chose Paul Felder as my money play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we all do not care about ownership. If Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it doesn’t hurt your lineup because only 10% of lineups didn’t possess him and you merely need to be top ~50 percent of the area to cash in cash games. In GPPs, I am guessing Felder will be over 50% owned. If he loses, that is half of the field that is dead with no shot at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% simply due to this mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you get a win with the low owned guy to put you in a far better location of a Royal 1st place win and maybe hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anybody and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Can it shock you much if Perry could KO him in this battle? In GPPs, we are looking for that boom or bust play and that is Mike Perry this week which makes him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog drama of the week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this struggle happened 5 decades ago, but now we get a evaporating Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can continue to keep this battle standing for many the struggle and that will give him a huge edge. He’s also dangerous on the ground himself and when he’s taken I believe he will have the ability to get back up if he isn’t able to get a entry of his own. In case Pettis can win a determination then I presume he will pay off his DK cost and is going to be a fantastic underdog to use so you can conserve salary in your lineups. I may also see this battle ending from Pettis dropping Chiesa with a human body kick and if this happens he will probably be on the winning lineup when he could make it happen in around 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I really do think he wins the fight, but I do not find him paying that large price tag. He does not fight at a heavy pace and he has not gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins as well as the ground is where he’ll have his biggest advantage in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and at his salary this week I need at least 91 points out of him to pay that much. I’d rather cover the guys higher priced compared to Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or even Miocic. I will have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of them, which makes him my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 on this link below:
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